LOS ANGELES — Tarik Skubal has not signed anything. But if the Los Angeles Dodgers get their way, the best pitcher on the free agent market will be back in Dodger blue next season.
ESPN insider Alden Gonzalez reported this week that his sense is Skubal “would love” to return to the Dodgers, after two and a half months in Los Angeles that left a deep impression on the two-time Cy Young Award winner. “He truly seemed to relish his 2½ months in Los Angeles. He loved the culture, particularly being among so many established, veteran players who were singularly focused on winning. He became besties with Blake Snell, was awed by the organization’s resources and, overall, seemed to fit in seamlessly,” Gonzalez wrote.
The price will decide it. Seven teams are expected to pursue Skubal this offseason, per ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel, and ESPN’s Jeff Passan names the Dodgers and the New York Mets as the two most obvious suitors. Passan also reports the Chicago Cubs “badly want” Skubal, though they are skeptical they will compete at the money he is expected to command.
That money could be historic. Passan projects a deal well beyond $300 million, potentially in the $400 million range, which would set a new record for a starting pitcher. Former general manager Jim Bowden put the range even higher, between $350 million and $500 million depending on length and structure. The current record for a pitcher belongs to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who signed a 12-year, $325 million deal with the Dodgers.
The clock is the other pressure. The MLB collective bargaining agreement expires December 1, when a lockout looms, and Passan reports Skubal is expected to sign before then. His agent, Scott Boras, wants a deal done before the deadline, and a new agreement could bring a salary cap that changes the math for every big-market club.
Skubal’s case for the money is straightforward. Acquired from the Detroit Tigers at the trade deadline, he went 5-2 with a 2.61 ERA in 10 regular-season starts for Los Angeles and finished 2026 at 12-7 with a 2.72 ERA and 186 strikeouts in 158 2/3 innings. In the postseason he posted a 2.45 ERA with 14 strikeouts in 11 innings, winning Game 1 of the NLDS against Atlanta before taking the loss in Game 1 of the NLCS against Milwaukee. The Dodgers were swept in four games by the Brewers on October 15, ending their bid for a third straight World Series title.
The risk is just as real. Skubal had Tommy John surgery in college in 2017 and flexor tendon surgery in August 2022, so a nine or ten year deal would carry serious risk for any club. The Dodgers, who already carry roughly $388 million in 2027 commitments, may prefer a shorter deal with a huge annual salary and opt-outs. Gonzalez himself cautioned that it will “come down to price. And whether the Dodgers would be willing to match Steve Cohen’s Mets.”
Around the roster, the offseason is already moving. The Dodgers have lost 11 more players to free agency, per Sports Illustrated, and Teoscar Hernandez is drawing trade interest from the Toronto Blue Jays, per Jim Bowden. On the brighter side, Shohei Ohtani was named a finalist for the 2026 National League MVP Award on November 3, alongside Pete Crow-Armstrong and Brice Turang, with the winner announced November 12.
Skubal declined to discuss free agency after the NLCS loss. For now, the only certainty is the interest, and whether it becomes a reunion depends on how far the Dodgers are willing to go to keep him.
Source: ESPN (Alden Gonzalez, Jeff Passan, Kiley McDaniel); Sports Illustrated.
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