LOS ANGELES — The race for Tarik Skubal widened on Monday. The San Diego Padres have expressed interest in the two-time Cy Young Award winner, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports, the first definitive link between San Diego and the top free agent on the market. At the same time, the New York Mets have emerged as the likely favorites to sign him, according to Jon Heyman — though ESPN’s Jeff Passan still considers the Los Angeles Dodgers the front-runners. Skubal is expected to choose his next team before the Dec. 1 lockout, when the collective bargaining agreement expires.
The Padres’ interest is the newest twist in a sweepstakes that has centered on the Dodgers and Mets since free agency opened. San Diego had been speculated as a dark horse for Skubal, but Morosi’s report is the first concrete link, MLB Trade Rumors notes. The Padres have scaled back free-agent spending since the 2023 passing of former owner Peter Seidler, but the Seidler family’s sale of the franchise over the summer to a group led by José E. Feliciano and Kwanza Jones has raised hopes that San Diego will dive back into the top of the market. The need is obvious: the Padres must overhaul a rotation in which Michael King opted out, the club declined Nick Pivetta’s option, and deadline additions Casey Mize and Robbie Ray are unlikely to return. Skubal would not cost San Diego draft compensation — the midseason trade from Detroit to the Dodgers made him ineligible for a qualifying offer.
The Mets, meanwhile, are “probably the favorite” to land Skubal, Heyman said on MLB Network. “I do favor the Mets at this point,” Heyman said. “We are not exactly sure where the Dodgers are going to go. They are not in the desperation mode that the Mets are in to get better. I think the Mets are the favorite.” With Scott Boras as Skubal’s agent, the Mets’ need for starting pitching and owner Steve Cohen’s willingness to spend, New York has been the industry favorite for weeks — and the sense forming at this week’s general managers’ meetings in Las Vegas is that Skubal could end up a Met.
The Dodgers have not gone away. Passan still names Los Angeles the front-runner, with a reunion highly possible, and as La Momentum reported last week, ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez reported that Skubal “would love” to return to the Dodgers after two and a half months in Los Angeles that left a deep impression. The Dodgers are expected to tempt Skubal with a shorter-term deal at a huge annual value, with opt-outs, rather than the longest offer on the table. Whether they match the Mets will come down to price — and to how far the Dodgers are willing to go to keep the pitcher who started Game 1 of the NLDS and the NLCS for them.
The money will be historic either way. Passan projects a deal well beyond $300 million, potentially in the $400 million range, which would set a new record for a starting pitcher. MLB Trade Rumors forecasts a nine-year, $425 million contract that would also break the record $43.333 million annual value for a pitcher; the current guarantee record for a pitcher is Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 12-year, $325 million deal with the Dodgers. Boras wants a deal done before Dec. 1, when the CBA expires and a lockout looms — and a new agreement could bring a salary cap that changes the math for every big-market club.
Skubal’s case for the money is straightforward. Acquired from the Detroit Tigers at the trade deadline, he went 5-2 with a 2.61 ERA in 10 regular-season starts for Los Angeles and finished 2026 at 12-7 with a 2.72 ERA and 186 strikeouts in 158 2/3 innings. In the postseason he posted a 2.45 ERA with 14 strikeouts in 11 innings, winning Game 1 of the NLDS against Atlanta before taking the loss in Game 1 of the NLCS against Milwaukee. The Dodgers were swept in four games by the Brewers on Oct. 15. Skubal, who had Tommy John surgery in college in 2017 and flexor tendon surgery in August 2022, declined to discuss free agency after the NLCS loss. Seven teams are expected to pursue him, per ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel — and now the Padres are officially one of them.
Photo: MLB
Source: MLB Trade Rumors, Dodgers Nation, NBC Sports, ESPN, November 9-10, 2026
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